Monday, December 26, 2011

Old Science Fiction: How well did they predict the future?

I've been reading my way through Project Gutenberg's Science Fiction bookshelf.  Much, maybe most, of the stories are short stories from the 1950s and 1960s. What stands out for me is that the big stuff has not happened and how much the mundane parts of our lives have changed.

Some of the "big stuff"[1] that has not happened:
  • Space travel between planets and solar systems[2].
  • Atomic powered rockets. And airplanes. And cars. And toasters (see next).
  • Ubiquitous, essentially free power, typically atomic. Mass to energy converters are popular in the stories. Fission/fusion reactors are extremely small and safe in the stories.
  • Flying cars.
  • Moving walkways.
What is really interesting is how many things that are written into the scenarios as "normal life" at the time the stories were written have changed:
  • The cold war (USA vs. USSR) is active.
  • Phones had wires and operators (and rotary dials). They typically had a video feed as well.  While video is available today it is not prevalent for everyday use (no thanks, I don't need to see my boss).
  • Smoking. Smoking. Smoking in spaceships(!). More smoking.
  • Computers are huge.
  • Typewriters, telegraphs, etc.
  • Phone booths.
Misses:
  • The concept of a cell phone is totally absent.
  • Data transfer between computers (e.g. the internet).
  • The computer power and size of todays computers is so much greater than the power of the (huge) computers envisioned is so far different as to be effectively a miss.
  • A recurring theme is that, due to the automated production of goods, it will be the duty for people to consume products in order to keep employment from collapsing.
  • Other planets in our solar system (primary Mars and Venus) are habitable and often have existing intelligent life forms.
My conclusion: speculating is fun, but the things that you think will be real in 20-50 years will still be will-o-wisps. On the other hand, a lot of the things you take for granted will be so different that it will make your grandkids laugh at you.

[1] Only considering things that don't violate known laws of physics.
[2] Well OK, interstellar travel either violates known laws of physics, or requires discovery of new laws of physics.